NFP Data Takes Top Economic Billing This Week

US jobs data takes top economic billing this week, with the delayed January NFP (non-farm payrolls) figures due today. Consensus is looking for around 60k–80k jobs added last month, which would represent a modest if unspectacular employment picture. As things stand now, we are not expecting another US rate cut until around mid-year, and the jobs numbers would likely need to drop off a cliff—or even turn negative—to bring forward the timeline for a potential rate cut.

The latest US retail sales figures were flat and missed estimates, which dulled enthusiasm for stocks and moved Treasury yields lower. Inflation figures will also be released this Friday, with CPI expected to show a 0.3% rise for the prior month. So between the NFP and CPI data this week, we should get a clearer read on whether the Fed should be more concerned with jobs or inflation on its dual mandate.

In FX, the Dollar (as measured by the Dollar Index, or DXY) has lost ground this week, with softer economic data and lower Treasury yields taking steam out of the greenback. The USD/JPY rate has been sliding lower (down 1.8% over the past five days), with the Japanese currency getting a boost from hawkish comments by monetary officials. The threat of intervention, and expectations that economic stimulus could lead to inflation and further rate hikes by the BOJ, have supported the yen and given USD/JPY some breathing room below the 160 mark—which seems to be an unofficial line in the sand for monetary authorities.

The dip in form from the Dollar should have been good news for gold, all else being equal, but the precious metal still slipped in the past 24 hours. With gold back above $5,000, profit-taking and consolidation moves kicked in ahead of the NFP release. Should we see a soft NFP print (such as below 50k), it could further pressure the USD and open the door for gold to continue its recovery efforts. The immediate resistance level to watch is around $5,080, which if broken could see gold move toward resistance at $5,120. Support awaits at $4,990, ahead of firmer support at $4,760. For now, upside is favoured for gold given the macro and geopolitical outlooks. But the recent historic sell-off at the end of January and start of February has left a mark, with the precious metal not looking quite as impervious to market shocks as it once did.

Oil prices have been trading in a choppy range this week, with Brent crude hovering around $68.90–$69.20 per barrel and WTI near $64.00–$64.20, reflecting a delicate tug-of-war between persistent oversupply pressures and simmering geopolitical risks. On the bearish side, a forecasted 2–4 million barrels per day global surplus in 2026—driven by surging non-OPEC production from the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada—continues to weigh heavily, exacerbated by tepid demand growth amid China's economic slowdown and inventory builds. However, a persistent risk premium keeps a floor under prices, fuelled by escalating US-Iran tensions (including naval incidents in the Gulf, sanctions on Iranian oil trade, and warnings to vessels near the Strait of Hormuz), which could spike crude sharply if conflict erupts or supply disruptions materialize. This volatile mix leaves markets on edge—oversupply caps upside, but any geopolitical flare-up could trigger a quick rally, making short-term direction highly sensitive to headlines from Washington and Tehran.